HOPE beats VUCA!
Not for a long time has there been a time of such exceptional volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
Do you know when the VUCA acronym was first coined? Like so many things, it was popularized first by the US Army, in this case at their War College as the Cold War evolved. Later, the business world took it up to prepare leaders across a whole range of industries.
2020 has been a tough year . . . but what could have been different? Let me share my own acronym. If we want to manage the impact of future VUCA events better, use HOPE:
· H for Holistic preparedness to address the V of Volatility
· O for Opportunities of information to address the U of Uncertainty
· P for Proactive restructuring to address the C of Complexity
· E for Experimentation to address the A of Ambiguity
Read on to find out about the next evolution!
H for Holistic preparedness
HOLISTIC PREPAREDNESS addresses the dynamics of change that drive VOLATILITY. It’s important to devote resources to prepare for and respond to volatile events. Holistic preparedness requires addressing the overall ecosystem. Enabling these resources can be expensive but the amount of investment should match the risk.
Early on in the year, we faced the unexpected challenge of the viral spread of COVID19 whose unknown duration quickly became clear. Although we quickly modelized virus propagation scenarios and researchers started developing vaccines using latest advancements like synthetic mRNA, we stumbled in the basics like the scarcity of personal protection equipment and ventilators in the pandemic’s initial stages even though we knew that a respiratory pandemic could hit us anytime after the early warnings of H1N1 in 2009.
COVID19 is not the last nor the largest challenge we know that we’re going to face this century. What other events should our world prepare for?
Top of mind for many is the dynamic of climate change. An example . . . as an amateur chef myself, food availability is a personal concern. Fortunately, I’m reassured to see a reference here about smart investments in agri-tech to reduce food dependency in certain Middle East countries, especially relating to fruit and vegetables. BUT, considering how so many ancient civilizations were extinguished, yes, extinguished due to food disruptions from climate events, are we prepared enough?
Are we conscious and engaged enough to change structural habits for the sake of the next generations?
O for Opportunities of Information
OPPORTUNITIES OF INFORMATION address the lack of predictability that drives UNCERTAINTY. In many cases, we have lots of information but lack an event’s primary cause and effect. Investing in information can help increase our chances of predicting right but it’s not easy!
Early on in the pandemic, many (including me here) evaluated the possible economic impact scenarios and what type of recovery shape we could expect. We followed with huge interest whether the Chinese recovery was forming a V-shape . . . or a U . . . or an L. BUT we missed the K-shaped recovery for most of our economies. It’s humbling to realize how bad one can be at predicting outcomes.
Why did we get it so wrong?
Unfortunately, the K recovery is developing higher degrees of inequality in society, accelerating a decades-old trend.
This leads me to the opportunity to promote “Hunger not Impossible” which works hard to reduce food insecurity in the US and improve next meal predictability for many in distress. What a great example of how to reduce uncertainty through information!
P for Proactive restructuring
PROACTIVE RESTRUCTURING in advance to reduce interconnected parts of variables that drive COMPLEXITY. The pandemic has shone a light on the fragility of complex systems — the ones with many interconnected parts and variables.
I reflected in this post here about the resilience of companies. COVID19 has accelerated structural changes in nine months that would typically have taken three to five years. The pandemic is creating the opportunity to reduce complexity and improve resilience.
The pandemic has stopped large portions of the world during different times of the year. I question if that happened before at such a scale, even during world wars. Such “interruption” forced to reassess which assets are the most important to protect at different levels; worldwide, country wise, or city wise; senior people, teenagers, smaller children; economic prosperity, psychological balance.
At a personal level, take this situation as an opportunity to reassess priorities and consider redesigning some aspects of your life!
E for Experimentation
EXPERIMENTATION to gain new learnings that are useful when facing AMBIGUITY. The ‘unknown unknowns’, that Donald Rumsfeld famously popularized in 2002, are the foundation of ambiguity events. Causal relationships are entirely unclear and no precedent exists. Fortunately, this is precisely the field in which innovation develops. Understanding cause and effect requires hypotheses and testing of them. In these situations, design experiments so that lessons learned can be broadly applied.
As I mentioned in this other post, COVID19 pushed many of us to experiment and find innovative ways for operating, from the restaurant delivering their first online order to my daughter’s ukelele teacher using zoom!
So, I invite you to reflect on what all that really means for you and how to better manage the next 2020-like year.
My own view? In front of a scary perspective, a more liberating attitude, to be developed all our life through HOPE.
More about VUCA: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
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About Albert Vazquez-Agusti: Since I was a teenager working with my father at his engineering office, I’ve seen firsthand how technology and innovation impact our work. We have reached a crucial acceleration point where technological change, education, and inequality are involved in a kind of race. I’ve come to realize that the real bottleneck to taking advantage of innovation is the lack of relevant managerial skills to impact business models through new technologies. That’s why I promote the development of people and organizations to support technology adoption to solve small to big problems based on my experience in Fortune 500, SMBs, Private Equity, Start-ups and Venture Capital organizations.
